PENGARUH EFEKTIVITAS PEMUNGUTAN PAJAK DAERAH DAN JUMLAH PENDUDUK TERHADAP PAD PROVINSI DKI JAKARTA : PERAN MODERASI PDRB MENURUT LAPANGAN USAHA

PAD PROVINSI DKI JAKARTA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of regional tax collection effectiveness and population size on regional native income (PAD), as well as the moderating role of gross regional domestic product (GRDP) by industrial origin in DKI Jakarta Province during the 2010–2024 period. The research method used a quantitative approach with secondary data obtained from official regional financial and statistical reports. Using time-series observation data across a 15-year period, the data were analyzed through Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) using econometric software. The results show that simultaneously, regional tax collection effectiveness and population size significantly affect regional native income, explaining 92.02% of its variation. Partially, regional tax collection effectiveness has no significant effect on regional native income. Conversely, population size has a positive and significant effect on regional native income. Furthermore, GRDP acts as a predictor moderator that fails to strengthen the effect of tax collection effectiveness, but functions as a quasi moderator that significantly dampens the effect of population size on regional native income. These findings indicate that regional revenue generation through fiscal decentralization depends more heavily on demographic expansion and macro-level economic capacity rather than administrative tax collection metrics alone.

Keywords:    Regional Native Income, Tax Collection Effectiveness, Population Size, GRDP, Moderated Regression Analysis.